Who is right: the market or the FED?
Long-term Treasury bond options show that the outstanding open positions predicting a bond rally and lower interest rates are 2.5 times larger than those protecting...
Tag: US economy
The U.S. inflation and the market euphoria
The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes the costs of food and energy, increased by 0.2% compared to September. The overall indicator remained stagnant, held...
The risk of a government shutdown in the United States persists
A shutdown would threaten a downgrade in the United States’ credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited political dysfunction as a growing social risk....
What scenario for interest rates in 2024?
The market has once again become hopeful. The Fed has completed its job, and we can now contemplate a rate cut in 2024 and, more...
The Fed: Towards the End of the Rate Hike Cycle
The Fed has maintained its benchmark interest rate of 5.25% to 5.50% for a second consecutive meeting. The policy statement acknowledges the recent strength in...
A Credit Market Under Pressure
Last March, the rise in bond yields had shaken the American banking system, sending three regional banks into turmoil. A massive fire sale and a...
High inflation for a long time
The most crucial question investors will have to consider in the coming years is undoubtedly the following: will inflation prove to be “transitory,” as the...
The day after tomorrow
Not long ago, the world lived in a time when money flowed freely and was inexpensive. Interest rates in the U.S. were close to zero,...
Oil and the Dollar, a Dangerous Mix for Global Growth
Can the global economy withstand a $100 per barrel oil price next year? Because a triple-digit price wouldn’t just mean higher energy prices but also...