What is China’s strategy after the Taiwan elections?
In the tightest elections Taiwan has seen in decades, voters returned the pro-U.S. ruling party to power despite frustrations over the Democratic Progressive Party’s handling...
U.S. Inflation Dampens Arguments for a Fed Rate Cut
U.S. inflation accelerated in December to 3.4%, the sharpest rise in three months. Americans paid more for housing and driving, casting doubt on investors’ bets...
A $2 Trillion Debt Case for Higher Rates for Longer
The bond market has spectacularly turned upward in the developed world, pushing yields down and perhaps too quickly forgetting about the soaring budget deficits. In...
The Boom in Oil Drilling in Russia Proves Moscow’s Resilience to Sanctions
Russia experienced a second year of record oil drilling in 2023, providing further evidence of the country’s resilience in the face of Western sanctions.The surge...
A New Attraction for Emerging Dollar Debt
Borrowers from developing countries are rushing to sell debt, capitalizing on increased investor appetite and the search for high yields.Mexico led the way, starting the...
Taiwan or a $10 Trillion Risk for the Global Economy
A war with Taiwan would have such an enormous cost that even those most dissatisfied with the status quo have reasons not to risk it....
2024, a High Geopolitical Risk
After 2023, an excellent year for risky assets despite the war in Europe and the Middle East and an increasing confrontation between the United States...
The ECB Under Market Pressure
Inflation in the eurozone accelerated in December, highlighting the challenge of reaching the 2% target set by the European Central Bank as governments withdraw support...
Germany, the New Weakness in Europe
Even if Germany finally starts to grow again in 2024, it will struggle to shake off the depression lurking behind one of its weakest annual...