The Bursting of the Chinese Real Estate Bubble: A Policy Mistake?
In 2020, the darling of bond investors was called Evergrande. Investors loved the debt of the Chinese real estate conglomerate. It was liquid, linked to...
Oil in 2024
Despite constant bearish talk about energy demand, global oil consumption increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023. The final stage of the post-Covid-19...
The Gaza conflict is another issue for central bankers
Two European giants in oil and gas declared on Monday that their oil tankers would avoid the waters off the coast of Yemen, a crucial...
Is the Fed right to lean towards investor optimism?
The Federal Reserve now believes it can have the best of both worlds: contain excessive inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. Powell surprised...
Who is right: the market or the FED?
Long-term Treasury bond options show that the outstanding open positions predicting a bond rally and lower interest rates are 2.5 times larger than those protecting...
A shock for the emerging world: the victory of Javier Milei in Argentina
“Libertarian outsider Javier Milei has won the Argentine presidency, promising a radical overhaul to address decades of political mismanagement. His strategy resonated with a population...
The U.S. inflation and the market euphoria
The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes the costs of food and energy, increased by 0.2% compared to September. The overall indicator remained stagnant, held...
Is a downgrade of Italian debt possible?
This week, a possible downgrade of Italy would sound like a bad omen for the Eurozone. Moody’s believes that the country presents a “substantial credit...
The risk of a government shutdown in the United States persists
A shutdown would threaten a downgrade in the United States’ credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited political dysfunction as a growing social risk....