Germany, the New Weakness in Europe
Even if Germany finally starts to grow again in 2024, it will struggle to shake off the depression lurking behind one of its weakest annual...
Tense and Uncertain Equity Markets
The S&P 500 ended its longest streak of weekly gains in two decades. It was different from how Wall Street hoped to start 2024.Investors, who...
The Fed still anticipates that interest rates will remain high for some time
Policymakers agreed last month that it would be appropriate to maintain a restrictive stance “for some time” while acknowledging that they were likely at the...
Short-term maturities will benefit from the Fed’s easing in 2024
Money market fund holders have a new reason to turn to short-term bonds. The best way to play the Federal Reserve’s pivot towards monetary easing...
The Bursting of the Chinese Real Estate Bubble: A Policy Mistake?
In 2020, the darling of bond investors was called Evergrande. Investors loved the debt of the Chinese real estate conglomerate. It was liquid, linked to...
Oil in 2024
Despite constant bearish talk about energy demand, global oil consumption increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023. The final stage of the post-Covid-19...
The Gaza conflict is another issue for central bankers
Two European giants in oil and gas declared on Monday that their oil tankers would avoid the waters off the coast of Yemen, a crucial...
Is the Fed right to lean towards investor optimism?
The Federal Reserve now believes it can have the best of both worlds: contain excessive inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. Powell surprised...
Who is right: the market or the FED?
Long-term Treasury bond options show that the outstanding open positions predicting a bond rally and lower interest rates are 2.5 times larger than those protecting...