“Kyiv might give up its claims on Russian territory in exchange for NATO membership.” This suggestion comes from Stian Jenssen, the Chief of Staff to the Secretary-General of the Atlantic organisation. “This discussion is already ongoing within NATO,” he added during an interview with the Norwegian newspaper Verdens Gang, noting that it could be a possible solution to the conflict.
In February, the Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung claimed that the CIA director, William Burns, proposed a “land for peace” deal to Russia in which Moscow would retain “20% of Ukrainian territory.” However, the White House, the CIA, and the Kremlin denied this proposal.
In its current state, this proposal is unacceptable to the Kremlin. Guaranteeing Ukraine’s military neutrality is a key factor in Russian foreign policy. Having Ukraine aligned with NATO at Russia’s borders would pose an unacceptable risk to Russia’s security.
The reality is much more nuanced. It is well known that the Pentagon and the White House positions are not aligned. American military officials point to the decrease in American military arsenals, escalating tensions in Taiwan, and the exorbitant cost of a war they don’t believe the Ukrainians can win. The Biden administration maintains a Manichean principle where the evil aggressor must be punished and the good defended.
All this occurred in an unfavourable international climate and a ground situation that did not evolve more. The Ukrainian counter-offensive, anticipated since early spring, has not delivered the expected success.
The human toll hasn’t been published for evident reasons, but the counter-offensive is bloody even by the admission of Ukrainian officials. Last November, General Mark Milley, the American Chief of Staff, reported 100,000 casualties (wounded or killed) in the Ukrainian army ranks.
Militarily, it’s hard for Western nations to keep up, and weapon deliveries to Ukrainians have endangered the arms stocks of many NATO countries.
Economically, a third of Ukrainian crop exports were destroyed after the latest Russian strikes. This decline is a significant setback for the Ukrainian economy and global food security, even with pressure from a billion euros from the European Union to build alternative routes since the start of the Russian invasion. Ukraine could only export 3.2 million tons of grains, vegetable oils, and cakes in the four weeks leading up to August 15, compared to 4.4 and 4.8 million tons in May and June when the Black Sea deal was still active. Even in wartime, Ukraine remained a major global grain exporter. Russia’s grain trade is benefiting from Ukraine’s weakness. Its grain exports are booming and are expected to account for nearly a quarter of global wheat trade in the 2023-24 season. In other words, the world will rely even more on Russia in the coming months, especially emerging countries.
In terms of geopolitics, the Russian president always seems to be one step ahead of Western countries.
His rapprochement with Saudi Arabia ensured that oil prices remain high, putting further economic pressure on a Western world that is mostly unprepared.
Last July, his diplomatic offensive in Africa gathered 49 African countries wanting to promote “a fair and democratic multipolar world order” and “fight against neo-colonialism.” Russian influence is growing stronger on the ground, and France, a former colonial power, felt the effects, having to withdraw from Mali and face challenges in Niger and Burkina Faso.
Next week, The Russian President will attend the annual BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in Johannesburg to start the process of enlisting more members to bolster its global weight, a push primarily led by Chinese President Xi Jinping but also supported by Russia and South Africa. Discussions will also focus on accelerating the abandonment of the dollar, partly by increasing the use of local currencies in exchanges between members, which is booming.
Despite the continuous efforts of President Zemlinsky on the communication front and Ukrainian fighters giving everything they can, realpolitik is catching up with this brave country. The reality is that the world needs a pacified Russia more than a free and whole Ukraine.