The latest round of U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh is a masterclass in diplomatic amateurism, with Donald Trump charging ahead in his self-proclaimed role as the great dealmaker—this time over Ukraine. The problem? Ukraine isn’t even at the table, and Europe is left scrambling, again sidelined in decisions that will shape its security.
The spectacle follows Trump’s phone call with Vladimir Putin, where the U.S. president swiftly reversed key American positions, including its long-standing support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its aspirations to join NATO. Trump’s approach effectively hands Moscow a victory before negotiations even begin, reinforcing the perception that Washington, under his leadership, is more interested in appeasing the Kremlin than defending the West’s interests.
Meanwhile, Europe is busy doing what it does best: reacting, debating, and ultimately failing to set the agenda. French President Emmanuel Macron convened a mini-summit in Paris, where European leaders debated their next move while acknowledging they remain on the periphery of these discussions. Britain’s Keir Starmer suggested he would consider sending peacekeeping troops. At the same time, Poland’s Donald Tusk flatly ruled it out, highlighting the EU’s chronic inability to forge a unified defence strategy.
The Biden administration’s hard-line stance on Russia may have been flawed, but it at least maintained the principle that Ukraine—not Washington or Moscow—should dictate its own future. Trump, in contrast, has rushed into talks with Putin with all the strategic foresight of a casino gambler. His delegation in Riyadh, led by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, lacks experience in high-stakes negotiations with the Kremlin, whereas Putin’s team—seasoned diplomats and power players like Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov—has been playing this game for decades.
For Europe, the situation is nothing short of humiliating. Not only has it allowed itself to become a bystander in negotiations that affect its security, but it is also being handed the bill for the fallout. Trump’s administration has made it clear: no U.S. troops in any post-war security arrangement for Ukraine. This leaves European leaders facing the harsh reality that they will have to fund and staff any peacekeeping force alongside Kyiv’s already staggering costs of military and economic support.
The situation underscores the broader failure of Europe’s strategic vision. The continent’s post-Cold War illusions of stability, diplomacy, and economic interdependence as deterrents to conflict have shattered. With the U.S. shifting its focus to China, NATO’s European members are being forced to confront a simple truth: without a credible military deterrent, they are at the mercy of Washington’s shifting priorities.
As the Riyadh talks unfold, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: Trump’s lack of diplomatic discipline is only matched by Europe’s strategic paralysis. And while Ukraine warns that negotiations without its involvement are ‘dangerous,’ the real danger may be that the decisions made today will reshape European security for decades to come—without Europe having had a real say in the matter.