As President Joe Biden’s administration prepares for its swan song, the focus has shifted to a final act of defiance against Vladimir Putin’s war chest. Just weeks before Donald Trump reclaims the White House, Biden is considering harsher sanctions targeting Russia’s lucrative oil trade—measures that could test the limits of a battered sanction regime that has thus far delivered mixed results.
Details remain fluid, but whispers from Washington suggest that Biden’s team is exploring restrictions on Russian oil exports, a move previously avoided due to fears of spiking energy costs—particularly inconvenient in an election year. Now, with global oil prices stabilising and Brent crude hovering below $75 per barrel, Biden seems emboldened to flex some geopolitical muscle. But the question remains: is this too little, too late?
Biden’s previous reluctance to upset global energy markets meant earlier sanctions tiptoed around Russian oil revenues, relying instead on a price cap scheme that achieved limited success. Despite an initial dip in the value of Russian seaborne crude, it rebounded, highlighting the inefficacy of partial measures. Meanwhile, Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers continues to ferry oil to buyers like China and India, largely unscathed by Western sanctions.
The latest proposal reportedly includes restrictions akin to those imposed on Iranian oil—sanctions that could directly target buyers of Russian crude. However, such a strategy risks alienating major importers like India and China, raising questions about enforceability and potential fallout. If implemented, these measures could send shockwaves through global markets, pushing oil prices and straining economies grappling with inflation and supply chain disruptions.
The Biden administration’s renewed zeal also underscores its own frustrations with a sanctions regime that often seemed more symbolic than strategic. The focus now includes curbing the shadow fleet, with both the U.S. and European Union expected to announce tougher measures targeting Russian tankers and their operators. While such moves might squeeze Putin’s oil revenues further, they also expose the glaring reality: two years of sanctions have failed to significantly curb Russia’s war capabilities or destabilise its economy.
Trump’s impending return to the Oval Office adds to the geopolitical stakes. Known for his transactional approach to diplomacy, Trump has signalled a desire to negotiate a swift end to the Ukraine war, potentially at the expense of Kyiv’s leverage. Biden’s team hopes that ramped-up pressure on Russia’s finances might bolster Ukraine’s negotiating position before Trump enters the scene with his famously erratic playbook.
A more aggressive sanctions regime has risks. Rising oil prices could alienate allies already grappling with economic challenges. Hungary and Turkey—both heavily reliant on Russian energy—have already voiced concerns about potential disruptions. Moreover, sanctions targeting the shadow fleet could antagonise nations like China, whose tacit support for Russia complicates any multilateral enforcement strategy.
The Biden administration is also racing against time to reinforce its support for Ukraine, both militarily and financially. Questions linger about Trump’s commitment to continuing U.S. aid, raising fears of a weakened Western front just as Putin consolidates his position.
Biden’s last-minute push against Russia’s oil trade highlights the shortcomings of Western sanctions as a tool of war. Despite multiple rounds of measures, Russia’s economy remains resilient, and its energy exports continue to fund its military aggression. Critics argue that a piecemeal approach—motivated more by fear of market disruption than strategic resolve—has allowed Moscow to adapt and evade.
Meanwhile, Trump’s forthcoming administration poses its own set of uncertainties. Will he double down on sanctions if oil prices spike, or will he retreat in favour of a deal with Putin that prioritises American domestic interests over global stability? As the world watches Biden’s final act and Trump’s opening moves, one thing is clear: the effectiveness of sanctions as a geopolitical weapon is increasingly questioned.