As Syrian President Bashar al-Assad flees to Moscow, leaving behind a palace ransacked by looters and streets filled with jubilant crowds in Damascus, the world watches the dramatic collapse of yet another Middle Eastern regime. Assad’s desperate appeals for help—reportedly even to Donald Trump—were left unanswered, marking the ignoble end of his 24-year reign.
The rapid unravelling of Assad’s dynasty, which has inflicted immeasurable suffering on Syria during a devastating civil war, signals both hope and peril. While some celebrate the end of a dictatorship, many fear a vacuum of power reminiscent of the chaos following the ousting of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. Western powers, Israel, and their allies must now reckon with the precarious landscape their policies have shaped—a region teetering on the edge of further destabilisation.
The current state of Syria underscores the consequences of a disjointed and opportunistic Western approach. While Assad’s downfall might seem like a victory for those who opposed his regime, it also lays bare the contradictions of US and Israeli policies. Washington’s refusal to engage meaningfully in stabilising Syria, coupled with its past support for factions now vying for dominance, has paved the way for new rounds of conflict.
Israel’s recent incursions into Syrian territory under the guise of neutralising strategic threats exemplify this dangerous game. By striking chemical and missile storage sites, Israel seeks to secure its borders but risks escalating the very tensions it claims to quell. Meanwhile, the US, under its elected isolationist, Donald Trump, has declared Syria “not our friend,” washing its hands of the region while maintaining a vested interest in the outcomes.
The Syrian crisis also echoes another ongoing conflict—Ukraine. As Assad finds refuge in Moscow, the parallels between his plight and Zelensky’s precarious position in Kyiv are hard to ignore. Both leaders face a world unwilling to fully commit to their causes, leaving them at the mercy of external powers more interested in advancing their agendas than ensuring long-term peace.
The lesson from Syria is clear: power vacuums created through external meddling without a viable plan for reconstruction lead to cycles of violence and instability. As Western nations debate their next moves, they must contend with the uncomfortable reality that their actions and inactions often sow the seeds of the chaos they seek to avoid.
As Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapses, Turkey finds itself in a precarious position. For years, Ankara pushed for Assad’s removal, framing it as a necessary step to stabilise the region and repatriate the millions of Syrian refugees living within its borders. Yet, with Assad’s departure, Turkey’s expectations have been fulfilled in the most dangerous way possible—ushering in a chaotic power vacuum it cannot control.
The new power dynamics in Syria are already slipping beyond Turkey’s grasp. The rebel factions, led by groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), hardly ally with Ankara’s interests. HTS, with its murky ties to extremist ideologies, represents a far more unpredictable and destabilising force than Assad ever did. Instead of a cooperative new government in Damascus, Turkey now faces the unsettling reality of a fragmented Syria with factions that could reignite conflict, exacerbate regional instability, and undermine Ankara’s long-term goals.
Adding to Turkey’s troubles is the unresolved issue of Syria’s Kurds, who have long sought autonomy in the region. The collapse of the Assad regime creates a volatile environment where Kurdish forces, already a formidable presence in northern Syria, may push for greater control or even independence. This directly threatens Ankara, which has consistently viewed Kurdish aspirations as a red line, fearing their influence could embolden similar movements within Turkey’s borders. With the Syrian government no longer a unifying force to restrain Kurdish ambitions, Turkey faces a renewed challenge to its territorial integrity and internal stability.
The situation is further complicated by Syria’s diverse minority populations, including Alawites, Christians, and Druze, who now find themselves vulnerable in the face of HTS’s rise. Known for its hard-line Islamist agenda, HTS is unlikely to offer these groups any guarantees of safety or inclusion. Instead, its history suggests a bleak future of repression, forced conversions, or outright violence. This threatens to exacerbate sectarian divisions, creating fertile ground for new conflicts and humanitarian crises that will spill over into neighbouring countries, including Turkey.
Even amidst the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia’s foothold in Syria, mainly through its control of key harbours like Tartus and Latakia, remains steadfast. These Mediterranean ports have long been central to Moscow’s regional influence and strategic military positioning. As the situation in Syria becomes more unstable, Russia will likely double down on securing these assets, ensuring its continued ability to project power in the Middle East and beyond.
The control of Syrian harbours also has broader implications for the global commodity market. These ports, traditionally conduits for oil, gas, and other resources from the region, could become pawns in geopolitical manoeuvres. If Russia tightens its grip or imposes new restrictions on maritime trade, it could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, pushing energy prices higher and adding pressure to already volatile global markets. The ongoing instability in Syria, coupled with Russia’s vested interests, raises concerns about potential choke points for key commodities, especially as sanctions and geopolitical tensions with the West continue to escalate.
Additionally, commodities like wheat traverse the Mediterranean from Ukraine, and Russia may face new disruptions if it uses Syrian ports to expand its influence over regional shipping lanes.
This precarious situation underscores the interconnectedness of the Syrian crisis with global markets. The fallout from Assad’s collapse extends far beyond Syria’s borders, with the potential to destabilise not only the region but also global supply chains and energy markets, leaving governments and consumers worldwide to bear the brunt of the chaos.