It should come as no surprise that global electricity demand is skyrocketing as the world strives to electrify everything. Goodbye petrol cars, hello electric vehicles, farewell gas boilers, welcome heat pumps—it’s all part of the much-touted energy transition. But, as with any grand vision, there’s a catch: electricity demand is growing far faster than renewable energy can supply. And the world, it seems, is turning back to a tried and tested source to fill the gap: coal.

Yes, coal. That same blackened fossil fuel that’s supposedly been consigned to history. As the demand for electricity surges beyond the capacities of renewable sources, coal has come back into the picture with a vengeance. The result? The so-called “peak coal” year, when global coal demand was supposed to drop finally, is now being pushed further into the distance. And when it does peak, we’re more likely to see a high plateau rather than a steep decline, inching higher year after year.

But here’s the real issue: dogma is now driving the agenda rather than science or flexibility. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Europe, where policies like the relentless push for electric vehicles (EVs) are putting millions of jobs at risk. Regulations were imposed on European carmakers, even though they weren’t ready for such a rapid transition. The result? Traditional automakers have been left scrambling to catch up, while their Asian and American counterparts—less constrained by unrealistic deadlines—watch from the sidelines, poised to take over.

And, of course, you don’t hear much about this in the shiny brochures celebrating the clean energy transition. Coal only makes headlines when the last plant in some corner of the world finally shuts down. The UK recently delivered such a message, proudly closing its last coal plant after 142 years of burning the stuff at Ratcliffe-on-Soar. Meanwhile, in Asia, they’re busy building new ones.

The harsh reality is that coal, the dirtiest of fossil fuels, is still seeing record consumption, with demand outstripping earlier forecasts. It perfectly illustrates the bumpy, stop-start nature of the energy transition: record solar generation on one hand, record coal demand on the other. And the so-called “solutions” being enforced on Europe’s industries are jeopardising workers without the infrastructure to support them.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published its annual World Energy Outlook, a comprehensive 398-page report mapping out the likely paths for fossil fuels and renewable energy until 2050. In a sobering update, the IEA warned: “The outlook for coal has been revised upwards, especially for the coming decade, mainly due to updated projections for electricity demand, particularly from China and India.”

This isn’t a tiny revision either: coal consumption by 2030 is now expected to be 6% higher than projected just a year ago. It might not sound like much, but that’s roughly equivalent to Japan’s total coal consumption—the fourth-largest consumer in the world. By 2030, the IEA now predicts that global coal use will remain above 2010 levels.

Let’s not kid ourselves—this is a significant shift in what had previously been a rather optimistic report. Wind and solar power are still growing faster than expected, and their market share continues to expand, but coal remains indispensable.

Even more cynical, one-third of this new electric era is powered by burning coal. In China, that figure jumps to 60%, and in India, it’s a staggering 75%. The reason is simple: electricity consumption is growing faster than renewable energy generation can keep up, and coal remains the go-to because it’s reliable—unlike hydropower, wind, or solar.

Apart from coal, only nuclear and gas-fired power plants can deliver electricity 24/7. One day, perhaps, wind and solar will do the job in combination with batteries. But for now, battery storage is minuscule compared to the energy needs of even a medium-sized city.

Here’s a sobering statistic: according to the IEA, two-thirds of the increase in total energy demand in 2023 was met by fossil fuels. Yes, clean energy is the future, but fossil fuels remain the primary energy source for now, especially with global electricity demand accelerating at an unprecedented pace. Between 2023 and 2030, electricity consumption is expected to grow six times faster than total energy demand, compared to just twice as fast during 2010–2023.

Meanwhile, Europe’s obsession with being the frontrunner of the green revolution has driven policies that may do more harm than good. The EV regulations have been imposed so urgently that industries haven’t had the time to adapt. Jobs and entire sectors are now hanging in the balance as carmakers face unrealistic deadlines while cheaper imports, particularly from China, flood the market.

While artificial intelligence and data centres are often blamed for rising electricity use, they account for only a fraction of the growth. The real drivers? Electric vehicles, air conditioning, and even desalination plants. The epicentre of this electricity boom is, unsurprisingly, in Asia. It’s no wonder that China and India—the world’s two biggest coal consumers—aren’t just refusing to ditch coal; they’re building new coal plants.

The result? A far dirtier energy transition than many had hoped for. Former US climate envoy John Kerry may have thought he had struck a deal with China to phase out coal at Glasgow’s 2021 COP26 climate summit. In hindsight, it seems Beijing may have pulled the wool over his eyes, keen to clinch a quick deal while Kerry was desperate for a win to showcase the Biden administration’s green credentials post-Trump.

It’s time for a reality check. The world cannot claim to be on the right track until coal consumption has fallen significantly—say, back to 2000 levels. Based on current trends, that’s unlikely to happen before 2050, or even later. Policymakers need to stop pretending the war on coal has been won. And in Europe, perhaps it’s time to rethink policies driven more by dogma than practical realities before millions of livelihoods are lost in the name of an unfinished transition. We’re not even close.