Donald Trump’s latest attempt at economic brinkmanship is here, and this time, it comes with a familiar yet perilous twist: “reciprocal tariffs”. The logic? If other countries dare to impose tariffs, VAT, or trade barriers on American goods, the US will now retaliate with equivalent levies—a simple, populist, and utterly reckless idea.
The White House insists this measure is all about “fairness.” In reality, it’s a textbook lesson in economic self-sabotage, threatening to unravel decades of US-led trade policy and destabilise global commerce.

Trump’s directive, signed last Thursday, instructs his trade and commerce officials to design country-specific tariffs to counter “unfair” trade practices. This broad and undefined mandate—covering subsidies, regulations, exchange rates, VAT, intellectual property policies, and more—gives Washington a green light to slap tariffs. This is not just about China anymore—it’s about America waging a global trade war on multiple fronts.
Yet, despite the bombastic rhetoric, Trump is delaying actual implementation, leaving just enough room for negotiation—or, more accurately, for countries to scramble and offer him economic concessions in exchange for mercy. We’ve seen this movie before, when he strong-armed Mexico and Canada into a revised NAFTA deal and when he bullied South Korea into tweaking KORUS.
It’s blackmail diplomacy, with the world economy as collateral.

Trump’s obsession with “fixing” trade deficits by slapping tariffs on foreign goods has one fatal flaw: it has never worked.
First, tariffs don’t magically bring jobs back: The 2018 steel and aluminium tariffs failed spectacularly, leading to higher costs for US manufacturers and barely creating any new jobs in the industry.
Second, tariffs tax American consumers: Higher import prices get passed directly to US businesses and households, inflating costs for everything from cars to medicine.
Thirdly, retaliation is inevitable: Targeting allies like the EU, Japan, and India will trigger counter-tariffs on American exports, hurting US farmers, tech firms, and manufacturers.
Finally, Global supply chains don’t care about tariffs: Companies don’t suddenly shift production to America—they find new workarounds in other low-cost economies.
And let’s not forget the currency risk. If Trump weakens the dollar to boost exports, other countries will do the same, triggering a race to the bottom in exchange rate devaluation—a scenario that could wreak havoc on global markets.
Yet, despite all evidence, the administration is charging ahead, armed with nothing but economic ignorance and political bravado.

Ironically, Trump’s protectionist crusade is a gift to Beijing.
While Washington is busy alienating allies and fragmenting the global trading system, China is stepping in as the pragmatic alternative. Xi Jinping doesn’t need to threaten anyone with tariffs—he just has to offer stability, long-term agreements, and investment.
This is already happening, as China’s influence in the Middle East is growing, and it is mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Conversely, the EU and China negotiate new trade deals while Brussels scrambles to maintain supply chain security.
Trump’s plan, rather than reasserting American economic dominance, accelerates China’s rise—a strategic blunder of monumental proportions.

Trump’s reciprocal tariff doctrine is nothing new—it’s just a louder, more reckless version of the same failed strategy from his first term. It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now.
Protectionism may sound patriotic, but in practice, it’s economic suicide.
The more tariffs the US imposes, the higher the prices for its own consumers, the weaker its own industries become, and the more it pushes its allies into China’s waiting arms.
If this is “America First,” the rest of the world must wonder what “America Last” looks like.