If Donald Trump’s latest stance on Gaza and the Middle East proves anything, it’s that short-term thinking and reckless bravado remain the defining pillars of his foreign policy. In a region where careful diplomacy is paramount, Trump has instead chosen to stoke the flames of conflict, alienating key allies, and strengthen America’s adversaries—all while giving Israel’s most extreme elements a blank cheque to do as they please.

For anyone who has followed Middle Eastern geopolitics for more than five minutes, this approach’s consequences are as predictable as they are catastrophic.

For decades, Saudi Arabia has delicately balanced its loyalty to Washington with the necessity of maintaining credibility in the Arab world. The Abraham Accords—though deeply controversial—at least laid the groundwork for an evolving (if uneasy) détente between Gulf monarchies and Israel.

Yet Trump’s reckless endorsement of an Israeli free hand in Gaza has put Saudi Arabia in an impossible position. The Kingdom, home to Islam’s holiest sites, cannot afford to stand idly by while Israel levels Palestinian cities with impunity. Trump’s policies are now forcing Riyadh to take a firmer stance against the US-Israel alliance, undermining years of careful Saudi diplomacy. What he fails to grasp is that the only true path to Israel’s security lies in its acceptance by the Arab world—especially Saudi Arabia. This was precisely what was at stake before the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2024. Years of diplomatic efforts were on the verge of delivering a historic breakthrough before extremists ensured it would all go up in flames.

Now, instead of working towards a long-term security framework for Israel, Trump is playing with fire—leaving the region in an even worse position than before. The humanitarian disaster in Gaza is not just a tragedy—it’s a recruitment tool for extremist groups. Trump’s policy is creating the perfect conditions for the next wave of jihadist movements. The US invasion of Iraq and the Abu Ghraib scandal led to the rise of ISIS, showing how Western-backed military actions in the Middle East can radicalise entire populations.

As Trump alienates traditional Arab allies, China and Russia are waiting in the wings, more than happy to fill the vacuum. Beijing has long been cultivating economic and political ties with Gulf nations, while Moscow’s intervention in Syria has already demonstrated its willingness to project power in the region.

By forcing Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations to reconsider their partnerships, Trump is essentially handing regional influence to Washington’s greatest geopolitical rivals. A more substantial Chinese and Russian presence in the Middle East would mean:

• Increased military cooperation between Gulf states and Russia
• De-dollarisation of oil trade, which could weaken the US financial system
• China brokering peace deals, as seen in the recent Iran-Saudi Arabia reconciliation

During the Cold War, the US at least understood the importance of countering Soviet influence in the Middle East. The Eisenhower Doctrine (1957) was designed to keep Moscow out of Arab affairs—yet Trump, seemingly unaware of history, is now inviting Russia and China back into the fold.

Trump’s carte blanche for Israel in Gaza is doing what decades of summits and resolutions failed to achieve: uniting the Arab world in a common cause. While Arab states have often been divided by internal rivalries, the brutality of Israel’s military campaign—enabled by Washington—has given them a shared enemy.

The last time the Arab world was this united was during the First and Second Intifadas when the Palestinian cause served as a rallying cry across the region. This time, however, the stakes are even higher, as the conflict risks destabilising multiple Arab regimes that rely on public appeasement to maintain power.

The most immediate and dangerous short-term consequence of Trump’s position is that it removes all remaining constraints on Netanyahu and his increasingly extreme government.

The Israeli Prime Minister, already embattled at home, has been using the Gaza war as a political tool to hold his coalition together. However, Trump’s unwavering support empowers him to push even further.

The result? A spiral of violence that will lead to decades of instability. Israel’s long-term security depends on a sustainable solution, but Netanyahu’s tactics—backed by Trump—guarantee the exact opposite.

The 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, which had initial US backing, led to the rise of Hezbollah and a conflict that still rages today. By ignoring history, Trump and Netanyahu are ensuring another generation of warfare, radicalisation, and bloodshed.

Trump’s policies are not just shifting alliances but endangering energy security. The Middle East remains the world’s most critical hub for oil production, and any major realignment in the region threatens supply chains, prices, and global markets. If Saudi Arabia moves further away from the US, it could coordinate oil production policies more closely with China and Russia, leveraging energy as a political weapon. It could give the BRICS incredible power. US shale production cannot fully replace disruptions in Middle Eastern oil exports, meaning Western economies will suffer from higher energy costs and inflation.

Finally, and perhaps most significantly, Trump’s reckless handling of the Middle East is undermining US credibility on the global stage.

• European allies are distancing themselves from Washington’s approach, as seen with France and Germany’s increasing criticism of Israeli military actions.
• NATO cohesion is at risk, with Turkey—already a problematic member—likely moving further into Russia’s sphere of influence.
• China is now the “responsible” global power, portraying itself as a mediator while the US looks like an unhinged enabler of war crimes.

Under George W. Bush, the US lost significant global credibility due to the Iraq War. It took years for Obama to rebuild alliances, and Trump’s actions may ensure that any future US leader has an even harder time doing the same.

Trump’s Middle East policy is not just short-sighted—it is catastrophically self-defeating. By pushing Saudi Arabia out of Washington’s orbit, strengthening China and Russia, uniting the Arab world against Israel, and giving extremists in Israel a blank cheque, he is setting the stage for long-term instability that will come back to haunt the US and its allies.

History has repeatedly shown that reckless intervention in the Middle East leads to blowback. From the Sykes-Picot Agreement to the Iraq War, Western miscalculations have had far-reaching, often disastrous consequences. Trump, true to form, is charging ahead without learning a single lesson from the past.

As the dust settles, the world may soon ask: Was the cost of appeasing Netanyahu worth the price of an entire region turning against the West?