A FED lost in translation

Federal Reserve Chairman took to his usual stage in Congress, once again proving that when it comes to monetary policy, ambiguity is an art form. In yet another riveting display of central bank acrobatics, Jerome Powell assured markets that he is in absolutely no hurry to adjust interest rates—because, after slashing them three times in 2024, the best course of action now is to wait and see.

Powell’s message? Be patient and stay the course, but don’t expect clarity anytime soon. On the one hand, he warns that easing too quickly could reignite inflation; on the other, he acknowledges that delaying too long could stifle economic growth. A perfectly balanced, utterly directionless stance—just as markets have come to expect.

Meanwhile, bond yields remain elevated, traders are adjusting their bets accordingly, and the Fed’s much-celebrated “soft landing” looks more like a mid-air hover with no clear destination. Inflation is still above target, economic growth remains stubbornly resilient, and yet, Powell insists that “there is no rush”—as if economic conditions will conveniently align with his deliberate and measured approach.

Of course, lurking behind all of this is the elephant in the room—Trump’s economic agenda, which the Fed is supposedly not factoring in (except, of course, they absolutely are). With tariffs rising, trade tensions escalating, and deregulation accelerating, the very policies Powell claims not to be responding to are, in reality, shaping the inflationary landscape he’s trying to navigate. But why acknowledge that when you can simply claim “uncertainty” and kick the can down the road?

And then there’s the minor issue of the White House’s newfound enthusiasm for dismantling financial regulations. Powell insists that the Fed remains committed to Basel III reforms—because, naturally, international standards are good—while simultaneously offering zero pushback as Trump’s deregulation crusade clears out consumer protections and banking oversight—a firm commitment to stability, except when it’s inconvenient.

But don’t worry—Powell has everything under control. Just don’t ask him to confirm whether the U.S. economy has achieved a soft landing, whether inflation is truly under control, or how the Fed intends to handle the long-term impact of fiscal policy. Those questions are, apparently, not his to answer.

So, what exactly is the Fed’s game plan? The same as always: project an air of calm, issue reassuring but meaningless statements, and react when forced to—preferably at the last possible moment.

Investors need a cap instead of getting even more uncertainties.

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