Trump’s Diplomacy: The Art of Bluster and Amateurism

In just one chaotic hour, President-elect Donald Trump managed to call for the annexation of Canada, suggest military action to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland, demand NATO allies spend an improbable 5% of GDP on defence, and vow that “hell will break loose” in the Middle East if Hamas doesn’t release Israeli hostages before his inauguration. As a cherry on top, he also proposed renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, calling it “a beautiful name – and appropriate,” during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Any plan or strategy didn’t back Trump’s assertions, save vague threats of tariffs against non-cooperative nations like Denmark. The spectacle erased any lingering doubt about his readiness to take foreign policy to unprecedented and erratic heights less than two weeks before assuming office.
The amateurism on display was glaring. Panama has already vowed never to relinquish the canal, Denmark has firmly dismissed any notion of surrendering Greenland, and Trump conveniently overlooked that the US hasn’t spent 5% of its GDP on defence since the 1980s, with today’s figure hovering around 3%. But the lack of feasibility didn’t matter. Trump’s rhetoric aligns with his penchant for maximalist positions and a belief in his mandate to upend norms after winning both the popular and Electoral College votes.

For those following the chaos, Trump’s opening salvo leaves little doubt he’s ready to bring his foreign policy style—part trolling, part authoritarian admiration—to new extremes. His brazen posturing is nothing if not consistent with his public adulation for autocrats like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Whether this bravado masks any coherent strategy remains anyone’s guess. The most dangerous leaders are not the populists but the leaders who believe in what they say. The question is: does Mr Trump believe in such stupidity?

Since 1947, when Harry Truman acquired small Pacific island chains from Japan after World War II, no US president has overseen any territorial expansion. However, Trump appeared determined to change that. During a press conference, he brought onstage his designated Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff—an investor and golfing buddy. Addressing hostages held by Hamas, Trump declared, “If they’re not back before I take office, hell will break loose in the Middle East.” Witkoff said he was leaving for the region that evening, hoping to deliver “good news” by Inauguration Day.

Meanwhile, Trump’s son, Donald Jr., fueled speculation about acquiring Greenland by flying to Nuuk with Trump’s future chief of staff, Sergio Gor, and right-wing podcaster Charlie Kirk. Wearing “Trump Force One” jackets, the group met with locals and even put Trump on speakerphone. “We need security—our country needs it, and the whole world needs it,” Trump told them. “You’re in a strategic location.”

The responses from world leaders were swift. Canadian MP Pierre Poilievre emphatically stated, “Canada will never be the 51st state of the United States.” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tweeted that there was “no chance whatsoever” that Canada would join the U.S. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dismissed Trump’s ambitions regarding Greenland but called for stronger bilateral ties. These statements highlighted Trump’s disruptive influence even before he took office.

Suppose Trump’s first-term foreign policy was characterized by global trolling; his second-term promises to take it to even greater extremes. Whether this is simply bravado, a haphazard strategy to reshape the international order, or an attempt to dismantle it entirely remains unclear.

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