The pipeline that once symbolised Soviet energy dominance is no more. After five decades of transporting Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine, the taps have been shut off, marking the end of an era. Kyiv, unwilling to let its infrastructure fund Moscow’s war machine, refused to extend the transit deal, effectively cutting off the flow.
Both sides confirmed the halt on the last Wednesday, leaving Central European nations to scramble for alternative, more expensive supplies. The timing couldn’t be worse: gas storage levels are depleting at the fastest rate seen in years as the region braces for winter.

While the pipeline only accounted for about 5% of Europe’s gas needs, the ripple effects of the energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are still being felt. Gas prices have surged 50% from the previous year, with recent market jitters amplifying volatility as Europe increasingly relies on global liquefied natural gas (LNG).
For Russia, losing one of its last remaining pipeline routes to Europe means forfeiting an estimated $6 billion in annual revenues. Ukraine, on the other hand, sacrifices transit fees and its long-held strategic position as a gateway for affordable energy to Western allies.

Many Central European countries have secured alternative supplies but at a premium. Slovakia’s largest gas supplier, Slovensky Plynarensky Priemysel, expects an additional €90 million annual cost for maintaining stable imports via other routes. The company warned that a colder-than-usual winter could leave all of Europe more exposed.
While an immediate shortage isn’t on the cards, refilling gas reserves before the next heating season may be challenging. Current storage levels in Europe are hovering just under 75%, a concerning figure as the region heads into colder months.

With pipeline supplies dwindling, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to push for greater LNG exports, a personal ambition he has championed. Despite calls from some EU nations to ban Russian LNG imports, Europe has been buying record volumes. However, Moscow’s LNG ambitions face significant hurdles due to Western sanctions—although President-elect Donald Trump could seek to alter those sanctions to broker peace.
For Europe, the loss of Russian pipeline gas raises the spectre of higher energy bills for households and industries already battered by the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.

Few are as vulnerable as Slovakia, whose Prime Minister Robert Fico had campaigned relentlessly to keep the transit route alive. Fico warned that the halt could have “drastic consequences for all of us in the EU” and hinted at retaliatory measures against Ukraine, including potential power cuts.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has refused to entertain any deal that would funnel money into Russia’s coffers while the war continues. For his part, Putin has claimed that any new agreement for Ukrainian transit would be “difficult to negotiate.”

The EU has pledged to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously downplaying the impact of the transit halt.
“This situation was anticipated, and the EU has been preparing for over a year,” said a Commission spokesperson.
Despite these assurances, alternatives like TurkStream—serving Hungary and Serbia—fall short of replacing the lost Ukrainian route. Other pipelines, such as Nord Stream, have been compromised by sabotage or political delays, leaving Europe’s energy landscape more precarious than ever.

For now, the curtain falls on a pipeline that once symbolised Europe’s dependence on Russian gas—a relationship both parties now seem eager to leave behind, though not without mutual pain.