In a spectacular reversal, America’s biggest banks are now looking at a much more palatable 9% increase in capital requirements, down from the eye-watering 19% initially proposed by regulators. It seems the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) decided to play nice after some of the fiercest lobbying efforts in recent memory.
Originally, the plan was to beef up capital cushions for Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, demanding these behemoths hold more to absorb unexpected losses and shocks. But after months of backroom wheeling and dealing, the new proposal is a mere shadow of its former self.
According to insiders, the drastic cut in capital demands could ease tensions with the banks, which weren’t exactly thrilled about the idea of stashing away more money. After all, less capital to hold means more profits to play with. And for Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the move could prevent what was shaping into a long and messy legal spat—because who really has the time for that?
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will officially announce the revised plan in a speech on Tuesday, after which the proposed 450 pages of tweaks will be published. There’s a 60-day comment period to keep the suspense going, with final implementation unlikely until sometime next year. So, there’s plenty of time for more wrangling and lobbying.
It’s not just about the watered-down numbers. The original proposal, tied to the Basel III agreement from the 2008 financial crisis, had regulators bracing for a 16% capital hike across the board. But the weaker version left some agency officials clutching their pearls, as it only suggested a 5% bump. Even the current plan is more of a compromise than a win for regulators.
Of course, banks are already eyeing the 60-day comment period with the glee usually reserved for Christmas morning, hoping for an extension. But even if they don’t get it, the 2024 political calendar might offer a lifeline. If Trump—or any Republican—returns to the White House, this could all end up in the bin, with Congress swooping in to cancel the rule entirely.
Banks, however, might not be jumping for joy just yet. While the reduced capital demands are certainly more bank-friendly, concerns remain over how trading risks are calculated and how the new rules will mesh with the beloved stress tests. But, as Mayra Rodríguez Valladares, a financial risk consultant, notes, it’s doubtful any bank will be brave enough to go rogue and take legal action. No one likes a lone wolf.
So, for now, America’s financial giants can breathe a little easier as long as they can stomach a bit more capital—just not as much as everyone feared.