Trade between Russia and China reached a record $240 billion in 2023. Russia’s eastern neighbour has become the supplier of everything from clothing to machinery and cars, following an exodus of Western manufacturers in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. At the same time, Russia increased its exports of raw materials such as coal and aluminium to China, as Europe shunned Russian metallurgical and mining companies, even when they were not sanctioned.
By mimicking American positions, Europeans have pushed Russia into the arms of the Chinese, who didn’t ask for it. Despite the slowdown in the Chinese economy, trade between the two giants is not expected to slow down.

This growing trade between Russia and China has helped the Russian economy withstand Western sanctions. Moscow is now preparing to spend billions of dollars modernising its vast Eastern railroads to accelerate nascent cooperation.
Vladimir Putin has announced his intention to increase the annual transport capacity on Russia’s two longest railways, the Trans-Siberian and the Baikal-Amur Mainline, to 210 million tons by 2030. According to the Kommersant newspaper, the railways transported about 150.5 million tons of goods in 2023.

The 8,700 miles of railways, also known as the Eastern Polygon, are a vital artery for Russia’s foreign trade, linking its western regions to the Pacific Ocean and China. Yet, these routes have long faced logistical problems and are currently operating below their nominal capacity.
Even before Putin sent troops into Ukraine, national carriers faced obstacles as they transported goods and raw materials such as coal to Asia. Infrastructure shortcomings, loading delays, and trade imbalances created bottlenecks that limited shipped quantities. The war also exacerbated traffic along the routes, with the military using them to move tanks and missiles, while increased trade between Russia and China after European sanctions boosted demand.

Russia has already spent billions of dollars to nearly double the capacity of the rail lines, which is expected to reach 180 million tons this year, up from 97.8 million tons in 2013. Yet, the current demand is twice as high as what the railway can handle. Just this year, Russia plans to spend $4 billion to improve the infrastructure of the Eastern Polygon. These works could continue until 2032 and are expected to increase the capacity of the rail lines to 255 million tons per year.
Russia is definitively turning towards Asia. Whether in economic or geopolitical terms, this makes one big loser: Europe.