In the tightest elections Taiwan has seen in decades, voters returned the pro-U.S. ruling party to power despite frustrations over the Democratic Progressive Party’s handling of the economy and escalating military tensions with Beijing. No party had previously won three consecutive terms.
President Xi Jinping had seen his hopes for a favourable election outcome dashed. Taiwanese opposition figures favouring renewed negotiations with China had come together on a joint proposal, which would have given them a better chance of winning the elections. However, this agreement fell apart in front of millions of viewers in a flurry of public insults and unprecedented chaos in Taiwanese politics.
The margin of victory highlighted Xi’s missed opportunity. The current vice president, Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing has labelled a “war instigator,” received only 40% of the votes. If his rivals had managed to consolidate an alliance, Taiwan would likely have ended up with a new leadership team eager to forge closer ties with Beijing.
This inability to leverage Taiwan’s political conditions also revealed that China’s intimidation of the island it claims as its own has not influenced public opinion. Since the last elections, Beijing has fired missiles at Taiwan, exerted new pressure on Taipei not to engage with U.S. officials, and tried to leverage its massive economy to force the chip centre into compliance.
China’s domestic situation limits Xi’s options. The world’s second-largest economy is experiencing its most severe slowdown in decades, with the once-booming real estate market weighing on nearly all sectors.
A corruption crisis within the People’s Liberation Army, which would be crucial for any invasion of Taiwan, has reduced the threat of a potential Chinese attack.
How Beijing responds to Lai’s victory in the coming months will test its fragile relations with Washington, Taiwan’s primary military and political support. The United States has thwarted China’s efforts to diplomatically and economically isolate Taiwan over the past eight years. President Joe Biden has repeatedly pledged to assist Taiwan if China were to attack.
Early indications suggest that Beijing has opted for a discreet response. Only six fighter jets from the People’s Liberation Army, four navy ships, and a weather balloon have been spotted around Taiwan. China often responds to visits by dignitaries, even minor ones, to Taipei with much larger military displays.
Another factor is China’s desire to avoid derailing an attempt to improve relations with the United States after years of growing tensions. When Xi met Biden in California last November, he told the U.S. leader that China was not seeking a hot war with anyone while affirming Beijing’s long-term goal of unification.
However, Xi has drawn such a strong red line around the Communist Party’s stance on Taiwan that it’s unlikely the Chinese leader will change course. It’s more likely that Beijing will redouble efforts to isolate Taiwan internationally, divide it internally, and test its resilience.
On the other hand, Lai will face a divided government, as his party failed to secure a legislative majority. The DPP will need to negotiate with the KMT or the TPP to pass budgets and laws, which could slow or hinder the DPP’s ability to advance its agenda. This could also delay U.S. priorities for Taiwan. When the DPP last held the presidency but did not have a legislative majority (2004-2008), it repeatedly clashed with the KMT over arms purchases and Taiwan’s defence budget.
The division within the powerful Taiwanese legislature, which controls defence spending budgets, gives Beijing a positive outcome from Saturday’s vote. Both the Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party won seats, meaning Lai must negotiate with the opposition on crucial decisions regarding military funding.
If Beijing wants either party to gain ground in the next elections, it should try to appeal to the Taiwanese public. China has previously banned group travel to Taiwan and blocked imports of Taiwanese mangoes and pineapples.