Regarding elections, 2024 will be the world’s most significant global election year in history. More than 60 countries are expected to hold executive and legislative elections at the national, subnational, or both levels.
In Africa, 22 countries, including major economies like South Africa, Senegal, and Ghana, will go to the polls this year. Due to varying levels of democratic consolidation in the region, these contests will not have the same significance. In some countries, the vote will serve to approve predetermined outcomes, while in others, it will be more genuinely competitive and reflect the will of the voters.
Despite these differences, this year’s elections are likely to reveal the growing dissatisfaction of African voters with democracy. Discussions about democratic decline in Africa and elsewhere typically focus on the role of populist or autocratic leaders. However, popular perception, based on the experience that democracy does not solve citizens’ daily problems, will weigh at least as much as the leaders’ personalities.
African economic growth has been stagnant since 2014 due to stagnation or declining commodity prices, domestic policy missteps, and many shocks, from climate change to pandemics and recessions in major importers of African goods. Meanwhile, the elected governments of several countries have proven incapable of protecting their citizens.
While democracy does not guarantee material prosperity, much of its promotion in the region rested on the idea that the end of autocracy would lead to political freedom and economic emancipation. The fact that neither of these goals has been achieved poses a real danger.
Evidence appears in both public opinion data and voter turnout. Since 2015, most Africans surveyed in dozens of countries have expressed dissatisfaction with democracy. Unfortunately, in the latest round of surveys (2022), a majority also supported military intervention in politics to address political dysfunction.
Declining voter turnout in African elections is also indicative of dissatisfaction. In the 2023 elections in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and democracy, only 26.7% of registered voters turned out to vote. This is a significant drop from the 69.1% voter turnout peak in 2003. According to Afrobarometer surveys, satisfaction with Nigerian democracy fell to a minimum of 20.6% in 2022, compared to a peak of 83.6% in 1999.
Even South Africa, arguably Africa’s most institutionalized democracy, is not immune to these trends. In 2022, only 24.6% of those surveyed expressed satisfaction with the Rainbow Nation’s democracy. About half of the 53.6% were satisfied with South African democracy in 1999, four years after the end of apartheid. These trends are supported by declining support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) ahead of this year’s elections. The latest available survey data suggest that the ANC may risk falling below 50% of the vote for the first time and may be forced to form a coalition government at the national level.
The year 2024 looks set to be a complicated one for the African continent, which did not need this source of instability.