The beginnings of a banking crisis in the United States?

The sudden closure of Silvergate Capital and the hasty fundraising of SVB Financial Group have sent American bank stocks plunging and raised the question: could this be the start of something much worse?

The problem at the two lenders highlights the consequences of the rise in interest rates. The increase in interest rates has left banks with low-interest bonds on their balance sheets that cannot be sold quickly, without taking losses. So, if too many customers withdraw money simultaneously, the bank runs out of liquidity.

In the middle of the crisis, SVB’s CEO Greg Becker urged customers to “stay calm.” A few hours after Becker’s call, some of the top venture capital firms, including Founders Fund, advised portfolio companies to withdraw money as a precaution. The issue of trust in the banking system now arises with the question: who’s next?

The immediate risk for many banks may not be existential, at least for now. But the remedy could still be painful. Rather than facing an extensive run on deposits, banks will be forced to compete more fiercely by offering higher interest payments to savers. This would erode their profits, and some may not survive. Small and medium-sized banks, whose funding is usually less diversified, are on the front line.

Ironically, many investors had been heavily invested in financial stocks to weather the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, betting that this would open the way for lenders to make more money. For them, this week has been a shock.

Searching for short-term funding combined with a loss of confidence in the system will create tensions in the money market, resulting in higher interbank rates and difficulties in financing. The subject becomes explosive when combined with other factors, such as inflation and a potential crisis around the U.S. debt.

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