The minutes of the last FOMC meeting published this week did not bring any hope to the investors. Fed officials have indicated that interest rates may need to rise more than expected due to persistent inflation.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the U.S. economy was proving more resilient than expected and warranted further rate hikes, up to 5.375%.
The minutes showed that some Fed members would have voted for a more significant raise. In any case, the message remains the same: the rise in rates is not over, and it is likely that the level of rates will remain high for a more extended period than the market anticipates.
Investors continue to bet on easing monetary policy despite a nonambiguous message. Indeed, it is difficult to change the mind of people after fourteen years of bad habits where money was cheap and flowing into the economy.
The coming 18 months will be in a high-interest rates environment, with persistent inflation, geopolitical instability, and less growth. This scenario is not priced yet by investors.